EUR/USD: Sellers to target a return to 1.10 after dovish comments by council hawk Knot – SocGen

Economists at Société Générale analyze EUR/USD outlook ahead of ECB and Fed meetings.

The swing back below the 200-WMA last week does not augur well

Sellers will target a return to 1.10 if the dovish comments made last week by ECB hawk Knot represent the view of the wider council. According to Knot, a rate increase beyond July is not a done deal. 

The problem for Euro bulls arises if Fed chair Powell tempers dovish market expectations for no more hikes after the summer, and/or Knot's dovish comments are echoed by President Lagarde during the ECB press conference.

Technically, the swing in EUR/USD back below the 200-WMA last week does not augur well and is reminiscent of 2019 and 2020. After crossing the 200-WMA in June 2019 at 1.1350, EUR/USD retraced 4.2% to a low of 1.0879 in September. In March 2020 (Covid outbreak), EUR/USD again crossed 1.1350 before retracing 6.2% to 1.0638.