EUR/GBP should remain rangebound between 0.8550 and 0.8655 until UK GDP data on Friday – SocGen

Economists at Société Générale analyze GBP outlook ahead of UK GDP data for the second quarter due on Friday.

GBP seasonality is bearish

Q2 UK GDP and US CPI will decide if the recovery in GBP/USD has legs this week. 

EUR/GBP should remain rangebound between 0.8550 and 0.8655 until GDP data is published on Friday. 

Sterling seasonality is bearish.

We forecast Q1 GDP growth of 0.1% QoQ (0.3% YoY), the same as Q1, thanks to a rebound in June GDP growth of 0.2% following the contraction of -0.1% in May. The BoE forecasts growth of around 0.2% in H1 and a similar rate in the near term.