AUD: Could be the big winner of a Harris victory – ING

It is not a surprise to hear of some hedge funds buying AUD/USD call spreads structures in the FX options market, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

AUD/USD to deliver gains if Harris wins

“The Australian Dollar (AUD) could be the big winner should Harris keep Trump out of the White House. Under such a scenario, the China tariff threat would be reduced considerably. At the same time, Chinese asset markets are starting to perform a little better on the recent stimulus measures – as well as in anticipation of some further fiscal stimulus details emerging from China this week.”

“At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia seems in no mood to join its peers in easing policy. Last night's policy meeting led with a message that underlying inflation is too high, even though it was forecast marginally lower at 2.8% by the end of next year.” 

“As such it would be no surprise to see AUD/USD deliver some substantial gains were Harris to win this week.”