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18 Mar 2015
Key events ahead for UK: Unemployment rate to slip - TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities team notes that it is a very busy day for the UK with employment data, the BoE minutes, and the budget in the limelight, further forecasting the unemployment rate to slip lower to 5.6%.
Key Quotes
“We look for the unemployment rate to slip at least 0.1ppts lower to 5.6% in Jan, in line with consensus but the risk is biased towards 5.5%, as survey data and the claimant count point to ongoing improvement, while wage growth should improve as expected.”
“For the minutes, markets will be looking for another unanimous vote to keep rates unchanged, especially after the BoE (accidentally, we think) published a press release to that effect after the 5 March rate decision.”
“Recent comments from Weale and McCafferty also didn’t suggest that either one has changed their votes back to hiking quite yet.”
“And lastly for the budget, the final pre-election budget will be released around 12:30pm GMT. New measures are likely to balance out most of the improvement in the fiscal numbers since the Autumn Statement, but these are more likely to be eye-catching from a political standpoint rather than changing the fiscal picture substantially.”
“The most important thing to come out of this budget from a market perspective may be the polling afterwards, to see if it provides any pre-election boost.”
Key Quotes
“We look for the unemployment rate to slip at least 0.1ppts lower to 5.6% in Jan, in line with consensus but the risk is biased towards 5.5%, as survey data and the claimant count point to ongoing improvement, while wage growth should improve as expected.”
“For the minutes, markets will be looking for another unanimous vote to keep rates unchanged, especially after the BoE (accidentally, we think) published a press release to that effect after the 5 March rate decision.”
“Recent comments from Weale and McCafferty also didn’t suggest that either one has changed their votes back to hiking quite yet.”
“And lastly for the budget, the final pre-election budget will be released around 12:30pm GMT. New measures are likely to balance out most of the improvement in the fiscal numbers since the Autumn Statement, but these are more likely to be eye-catching from a political standpoint rather than changing the fiscal picture substantially.”
“The most important thing to come out of this budget from a market perspective may be the polling afterwards, to see if it provides any pre-election boost.”