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6 Nov 2015
USDCAD: Beholden to payrolls - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that for USDCAD, we think it will be more important to focus on the US numbers as this will dictate broader price action across markets.
Key Quotes
“The market will also have to digest the October Canadian employment report. Our forecast for a decline of 5k jobs (market: +10k) is highly dependent on a seasonal quirk related to the education sector that saw a sizable decline in September (-60k). This will have to be offset in the October report, which would suggest some upside risk to the employment numbers but we think there will be enough downward pressure across a slew of other sectors to weigh on the headline.”
“Overall, the employment figures will hold no major impact on Bank of Canada policy. Fair value opens at 1.3210 today, which is broadly in line with spot. We spot resistance at 1.3220, which if breached should see USDCAD easily challenge 1.3280/1.3300. On the downside, initial support comes in at 1.3160/70 followed by 1.3100/20.”
Key Quotes
“The market will also have to digest the October Canadian employment report. Our forecast for a decline of 5k jobs (market: +10k) is highly dependent on a seasonal quirk related to the education sector that saw a sizable decline in September (-60k). This will have to be offset in the October report, which would suggest some upside risk to the employment numbers but we think there will be enough downward pressure across a slew of other sectors to weigh on the headline.”
“Overall, the employment figures will hold no major impact on Bank of Canada policy. Fair value opens at 1.3210 today, which is broadly in line with spot. We spot resistance at 1.3220, which if breached should see USDCAD easily challenge 1.3280/1.3300. On the downside, initial support comes in at 1.3160/70 followed by 1.3100/20.”