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4 Jan 2016
USD/JPY downside risks limited - Nomura
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Nomura noted that the BOJ Governor Kuroda said that the BOJ is ready to take bolder steps when necessary to achieve the 2% target.
Key Quotes:
"At the same time, Governor Kuroda said that underlying inflation trend is improving steadily, thanks to the record corporate profits and wage increases, suggesting a continued optimistic stance on the inflation recovery."
"Over the weekend, Nikkei also reported that the BOJ may further delay the target for achieving 2% inflation goal unless there is a rebound in oil prices (unconfirmed). It also reported that the Bank’s FY2016 core CPI forecast would be lowered further to about 1% from 1.4% at the next meeting."
"As the major reason for the likely inflation forecast downgrade would be lower oil prices, the downgrade may not lead to imminent easing. The consensus forecast for FY2016 core CPI has been already lowered to 0.92% so a possible downgrade to about 1% by the BOJ would not be a surprise."
"Nonetheless, market-based inflation expectations continue to decline as oil prices decline. Wage negotiations are set to start soon, and the BOJ’s concerns over the negative impact of lower inflation expectations and JPY appreciation on wage formation may rise again, which would also limit the downside risk for USD/JPY, while market expectations for imminent BOJ easing are already subdued.
Key Quotes:
"At the same time, Governor Kuroda said that underlying inflation trend is improving steadily, thanks to the record corporate profits and wage increases, suggesting a continued optimistic stance on the inflation recovery."
"Over the weekend, Nikkei also reported that the BOJ may further delay the target for achieving 2% inflation goal unless there is a rebound in oil prices (unconfirmed). It also reported that the Bank’s FY2016 core CPI forecast would be lowered further to about 1% from 1.4% at the next meeting."
"As the major reason for the likely inflation forecast downgrade would be lower oil prices, the downgrade may not lead to imminent easing. The consensus forecast for FY2016 core CPI has been already lowered to 0.92% so a possible downgrade to about 1% by the BOJ would not be a surprise."
"Nonetheless, market-based inflation expectations continue to decline as oil prices decline. Wage negotiations are set to start soon, and the BOJ’s concerns over the negative impact of lower inflation expectations and JPY appreciation on wage formation may rise again, which would also limit the downside risk for USD/JPY, while market expectations for imminent BOJ easing are already subdued.