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22 Feb 2016
A big week in EMEA's: Central Banks in focus - Nomura
Analysts at Nomura noted that this is a front-loaded week in EMEA in terms of key events.
Key Quotes:
"Focus is on rates decisions in particular, starting with Israel today, and Turkey and Hungary tomorrow.
We then have Turkey on Tuesday, where we think rates are likely to be left unchanged, for the 12th consecutive meeting. Since the last meeting on 19 January, both headline and core CPI inflation have increased, core to 9.6% y-o-y from 9.5%, the highest since August 2014.
On the activity side industrial production grew 4.5% y-o-y in December, taking the year-on-year average in Q4 to 4.23%, from 3.3% in Q3, thus if anything suggesting a slight acceleration in year-on-year GDP growth in Q4 from the 4.0% posted in Q3. Solid industrial activity is in stark contrast to the deterioration in consumer confidence, which dipped to 66.6 in February amid elevated geopolitical tensions, from 71.6 in January, and just above the all-time low of 58.5 from September last year.
Elsewhere, the current account balance came in at -TRY5.07bn, taking the current account deficit for 2015 to around 4.4%, from 5.4% in 2014. Taken together, all of the above suggest a continuation of the developments we have seen in recent months, with Turkey continuing to see high and rising inflation and geopolitical tensions/security risks, but also robust growth and sustained current account balance improvement."
Key Quotes:
"Focus is on rates decisions in particular, starting with Israel today, and Turkey and Hungary tomorrow.
We then have Turkey on Tuesday, where we think rates are likely to be left unchanged, for the 12th consecutive meeting. Since the last meeting on 19 January, both headline and core CPI inflation have increased, core to 9.6% y-o-y from 9.5%, the highest since August 2014.
On the activity side industrial production grew 4.5% y-o-y in December, taking the year-on-year average in Q4 to 4.23%, from 3.3% in Q3, thus if anything suggesting a slight acceleration in year-on-year GDP growth in Q4 from the 4.0% posted in Q3. Solid industrial activity is in stark contrast to the deterioration in consumer confidence, which dipped to 66.6 in February amid elevated geopolitical tensions, from 71.6 in January, and just above the all-time low of 58.5 from September last year.
Elsewhere, the current account balance came in at -TRY5.07bn, taking the current account deficit for 2015 to around 4.4%, from 5.4% in 2014. Taken together, all of the above suggest a continuation of the developments we have seen in recent months, with Turkey continuing to see high and rising inflation and geopolitical tensions/security risks, but also robust growth and sustained current account balance improvement."