ECB: No expectation for fresh policy moves - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the ECB meets tomorrow and with the TLTRO and the corporate bond buying program yet to be launched, there is no expectation for fresh policy moves. 

Key Quotes

“The two main points of interest will be from the staff forecasts and whether the ECB decides to accept Greek bonds as collateral again now that the troubled country has passed its first review (of the third assistance package). 

In March, the ECB staff forecast 1.4% growth this year followed by 1.7% and 1.8% for the next two years.  Despite the strong Q1 GDP, the staff may shave the growth forecasts.  Inflation forecasts seem less likely to be revised lower.  CPI was estimated at 0.1% this year, rising to 1.3% and then 1.6% over the next two years. 

The euro itself is firm.  It briefly dipped below $1.11 to start the week but has held above there since Monday.  A band of resistance is seen in from $1.1175 to $1.1220.  The intraday technicals suggest some consolidation is likely in early North American turnover before another attempt higher.”