Stumbling to the US elections – Nomura

Bilal Hafeez, Research Analyst at Nomura, suggests that while the risk sell-off has dominated market headlines, US Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, has dominated US mainstream news headlines over the past 24 hours.

Key Quotes

“A bout of pneumonia and a very public physical stumble into her car has now brought questions of her health into the centre of the US election campaign. Already, her post-convention polling surge had started to recede and this could add momentum to that shift.

The implied probability of US Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, has therefore risen, which brings even greater significance to the upcoming Presidential debates on 26 September. The clearest market consequence of a Trump win would be Mexican peso weakness – it has tended to follow the ups-and-downs of Mr Trump’s chance of winning the election.”