US: Expect initial claims to remain low - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US initial jobless claims to remain low and suggests that further decreases in continuing claims in the face of strong payroll gains would not be surprising.

Key Quotes

“For the week ending 27 May, initial jobless claims ticked up by 13k to 248k. However, the four-week moving average dropped somewhat in the month of May after stabilizing during the first four months of 2017. For the week ending 20 May, continuing claims declined by 9k to 1915k.The four-week moving average of continuing claims has dropped substantially during 2017. The continued decline in this series broadly mirrors the drop in the unemployment rate over the same period.”

“Together, these measures indicate continued strength in the labor market as firms become more willing to hold on to their current employees.”