USD/JPY: up, up and away towards 111.50

• USD/JPY is making a fresh short-term high in Tokyo today marking up 111.32 traded. 
• USD/JPY has come off the 111.07 lows and up from the European 110.92 lows. 

There is little in the way of new and the dollar is not bid across the spectrum. USD/JPY has been yearning for a breakout but it its hard to see a sustained run when there are so many risk factors that could encourage mass repatriation outflow form EMs and back into Japan by Japanese investors. 

Arguments for the downside stays with the repatriations risks

USD/JPY's upside argument stays with trade wars and that risk seems to be simmering away on the backburners at the start of this week with no follow-through from the Trump administration thus far and a lack of sounds coming from China - however, fears still loom. At the same time, Brexit is turning put to be more positive on the recent headlines whereby the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said if both sides are "realistic" there could be an agreement on the terms of the UK's exit by early November - this is yen negative and the crosses are the big driver there (GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY). The arguments for the downside stays with the repatriations risks and the market following real money flows - similarly, should there be a resolve to the trade wars and as Brexit sentiment switch to risk-off again - or we see European politics take a nosedive again - the yen is a familiar safe haven for investor's idle cash. As for data, the week will really start to pick up on Thursday and Friday with a mix of Centra; banks and key US data including CPI. 

USD/JPY levels

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the technical picture is neutral, as the pair has been ranging pretty much since mid-August:

"The short-term picture is neutral-to-bullish, as, in the 4 hours chart, the price continues moving around horizontal and parallel 100 and 200 SMA, both indicating the absence of a clear directional trend, while technical indicators entered positive ground, the Momentum heading north but the RSI now flat around 51. The pair would need to clear the resistance area between 111.40 and 111.50 to be able to extend its gains up to 112.14, August high and a key breakout point."