USD/JPY seen below 106 on a three-month view – Rabobank

There is the possibility of an increase in JPY strength in the months ahead given the rise in Chinese related tensions as investor sentiment rather than domestic fundamentals can be a bigger driver of the Japanese yen. Therefore, economists at Rabobank forecast USD/JPY below 106 on a three-month view.

Key quotes

“There is precedent for the markets to ignore the build-up of bad news for some time before a certain trigger unleashes a wave of investor retrenchment; this is what happened at the start of the covid-19 crisis. If news regarding the build-up of Chinese tensions continues in the current trajectory, there is a very strong chance that the JPY will spike higher in the coming months.”

“We would favour buying the JPY on dips in the current environment and see risk of USD/JPY heading back below 106 on a three-month view.”